Red October: Russia of 1917 and 2017 closer than competence be expected

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LONDON (Reuters) – It is 100 years on Wednesday, regulating Russia’s aged calendar, given Vladimir Lenin’s Bolsheviks stormed a Winter Palace in what is now St Petersburg and took power. Not a lot has changed.

Well, not in mercantile terms, according to investigate by Renaissance Capital, an investment bank specializing in a region. It says a Russias of 1917 and 2017 have some-more in common than competence be expected.

Take, for example, debt. Just before a Red Oct revolution, around a third of Russian debt was hold by foreigners. Same today.

Pre-1917, foreigners got 5-8 percent division yields from Russian application shares. Same today.

Pre-Soviet Russia lagged a vital universe powers in industrial might, though was deliberate on a standard with Brazil and Mexico. Pretty many a same as today.

Raw materials were pre-1917 Russia’s mainstay, comprising two-thirds of a exports. It is still two-thirds in 2017, Renaissance, an rising markets-focused investment bank, says.

Finally, Russia was a world’s biggest exporter of pellet behind then. The bank calculates that over 2015-17, a countries of aged majestic Russia were again a world’s biggest exporter of grain.

This is not to say, of course, that zero has changed. The Soviet era, for example, brought widespread literacy, nonetheless RenCap economist Charlie Robertson records today’s many successful areas in Russia are where 1917 education was a highest.

The Soviet Union also saw industrialization, despite uncompetitive compared with Britain, a United States and Japan.

Robertson reckons Russia could good have achieved distant some-more though for a series and indirect Soviet years that he says stopped a growth of a complicated economy.

“Russia was concentration with Italy, industrializing as quick as Japan, and overtaking Spain in a initial half of a 20th century,” he wrote in a note.

“If that swell could have been maintained, and but … famines and steady advance by unfamiliar enemies, we consider Russia would be some-more populous, some-more rich and some-more approved than it is today,” he said.

“Without 1917, Russia might have suffered only 3 (or fewer) such disasters, like China or Germany, and be extremely some-more moneyed … today.”

Reporting by Jeremy Gaunt; Editing by Richard Balmforth

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